Galaxy 2026 Summary of Large Forecasts: The Year of Turning From Speculation to Capital

By 2025, Bitcoin had reached a record high in mid-year, falling back, and prices at the end of the year had largely returned to their levels at the beginning of the year. Despite a flat price performance, the year was not a step in the right direction: regulations continued to move forward, ETF flows stabilized, the chain of activity rebounded, and institutional involvement began to take shape, laying the foundation for development in 2026.

Galaxy predicts that in 2026 the encryption market will enter the critical year of material landing. Stabilized currencies are expected to go beyond traditional payment systems, tokenized assets enter mainstream capital and mortgage markets, and enterprise-level public chains move from pilot to actual settlement.

At the same time, the public chain will rethink the way value capture is captured, DeFi and the forecast market continues to expand, and AI-driven chain payments will begin to be scaled up.

Here's DeFi Warhol @Defi_Warhol Yes, Galaxy Research @@glxyresearch
A core summary of the 2026 Large Projections:

1. BTC up to $250,000 in 2027 Bitcoin is expected to slow down to $250,000 by 2027. However, as a result of the volatility of options markets and macro-environmental repression in 2026, market movements could be confusing and it was difficult to provide clear unilateral forecasts.

2. Solana Market value on the chain to $2 billion The chain economy of Solana will shift from mere meme coins to a business that earns real money, driving the market value of the chain ' s capital markets from around $750 million to $2 billion.

3. Communal chains begin to generate revenue at the level of agreements In order to address the issue of token value, at least one of the main public chains would be directly embedded at the bottom in an income-generating application, revolving the value back to the token itself.

4. The inflation reform in Solana is expected to be difficult to move forward in 2026 Solana ' s debate about inflation will continue to hold back, and there is more interest in the optimization of market structures. Proposals like SIMD-0411 may be difficult to adopt in 2026.

5. Enterprise L1 settlement will exceed $1 billion There will be a world of 500 strong firms that will introduce their own branded enterprise-level L1 block chains to settle real business in excess of $1 billion and that will be able to connect the public DeFi network through official cross-chain bridges.

6. Double the share of applied-level income and win-win agreements Bottom charges continue to be kept under pressure, the value flows to the upper levels, and the application earns significantly more than the bottom network.

7. SEC will turn on the green light for DeFi token security The SEC expects to allow compliance monetized securities to enter the DeFi domain through exemptions or "no recourse", while formal rule-making will not begin until later in 2026.

8. SEC facing prosecution for abuse of immunity Traditional financial institutions or trade associations may sue SEC to question why they issue a backdoor exemption order to DeFi or an encrypted company without following a full rule-making process.

9. Stabilizing currency transactions beyond the United States automated clearing system The GENIUS Act has allowed for increasingly clear regulation, and the frequency and scale of use of a stable currency will exceed the traditional ACH automated clearing system in the United States.

10. Increased market concentration of stable currencies Markets do not require dozens of digital dollars, and alliances with strong distribution channels will dominate markets, with small distributors choosing only to merge or cooperate.

11. Mainstream banks accept stock in chains as collateral Top-level institutions have begun to recognize chain-based equity deposits as equally effective collateral, marking the entry of monetized stocks into the core financial infrastructure.

12. Cross-border settlement of credit card giants with public-chain stabilization currency The world's top three credit card networks will stabilize more than 10 per cent of cross-border settlement operations, but the user is completely unconscious and the experience is still unencrypted.

13. By the end of 2026 DEX will account for over 25 per cent of spot transactions DEX, with the advantage of not requiring KYC certification, high groupability and low rates, will attract more traders and traders, and market share continues to rise from around 15 per cent today.

14. The governance of Futarchy DAO treasury assets over $500 million The Futarchy mechanism, which directly determines the allocation of funds by predicting market results, will be applied to a scale of more than $500 million for the DAO Treasury.

15. A breakthrough of $90 billion in encrypted mortgages Institutions prefer to use encrypted primary lending channels, and the size of DeFi and CeFi will lead to a full expansion.

16. Annual interest rate on stable currency borrowing maintained at below 10 per cent 在更深的流动性和机构资金支撑下，年化利率大多压在 10% 以下，同时链下利率的下降也拉低了链上的借贷成本。

17. 隐私币总市值冲破 1000 亿美元链上财富越多，对隐私保护的需求自然水涨船高，这将推动该板块市值从约 630 亿涨到 1000 亿以上。

18. Polymarket 周交易量稳定在 15 亿美元以上 AI 驱动的订单流增加了交易频次，预测市场规模将快速扩张。

19. 美国将推出 100 多只加密 ETF 上市标准通用化后，大量申请将获批。除了几十个单币种 ETF 外，多资产或杠杆类 ETF 也会如潮水般涌现。

20. 美国现货加密 ETF 净流入超 500 亿美元头部投行和券商平台等分发渠道全面放开，加上新产品解锁需求，资金流入速度将超越 2025 年。

21. 比特币将以 1% 至 2% 的权重进入标准投资组合主流资产配置平台会将 BTC 加入默认模型，比特币慢慢变成系统性配置资产。

22. 15 家以上加密公司在美 IPO 或重新上市得益于监管环境放松，大量成熟的加密公司将涌向美国资本市场寻求上市。

23. 至少 5 家加密财库公司被淘汰估值压缩下，那些没有持久战略、只是拙劣模仿微策略的囤币公司将被迫清算、并购或关门。

24. 部分民主党开始重新看待加密在高合规和监管压力下，那些关注普惠金融的声音开始变得更能接受加密支付网络。

25. 联邦政府将调查预测市场的内幕交易由于预测市场太火且具有匿名性，内幕人士利用私密信息获利的行为将引发监管机构的介入调查。

26. x402 支付标准成为重要的链上流量 AI 智能体交易增多，x402 代理支付协议将迎来爆发。预计 Base 链将占据其中 30% 的份额，Solana 约占 5%。

原文链接: