I'll read your report.—Goldman Sachs 2026 Looking forward: Looking for catalysts in a mess

2026, no lack of business, the lack of a sense of direction. Take you with Goldman Sachs today. @GoldmanSachs This Vision 2026, looking for catalysts in a mess.

Zero, excellent summary of the report

1. 2026's background is "complex but opportunity.": Central bank path, new trade order, fiscal risk, geopolitics and AI together to shape the environment, thus placing greater emphasis on proactive decision-making and decentralized combinations in order to cross fluctuations and fight for alpha
2. Core methodology: Maintaining "active, disciplined investments" in complex environmentsBecause central banks shift, trade changes, credit events tend to be more "individualized/unsystematic" and passivity and benchmarks make it easier to step on
3. Use "catalyst" as a drive for asset gain.: they define catalysts as "incident/drive/long-term themes" that accelerate growth and release value; focus on four categories: interest-rate reduction cycles, AI capex, merger recovery, and regulation/economic security/power demand, etc.
4. Global monetary policy entering a polarization phase: 2025 G10 has a 9/10 interest rate reduction; 2026 may be a new phase of "severe, loose, soft and higher"
5. Federal Reserve rhythm depends on employment.As long as inflation anchors, weak employment can lead to more interest rates; immigration restrictions, federal layoffs, AI alternative labour, etc. are all variables of employment
6. Trade shocks remain the downside risk of growth in 2026: The report mentions that the effective tariffs in the United States are at a very high level and that the key in the future is whether tariff costs are more clearly transmitted to the consumer end
7. Finance and debt are "floating" mines.The size of global government debt; the high deficit in the United States when the economy is still strong, the high real interest rates make the interest-rate expenditure path steeper; and the fragmentation of French politics makes fiscal reform difficult
8. Market concentration is extremely high but not necessarily equal to crisis.: S&P 500 before 10 large companies account for about 40% of market value; historically industry-dominated cycles can last long, and the real risk is that "unprofitable" results in a break in the sustainability of returns
9. Stock-screened "Quality 3 Packages": High Māori, strong balance sheets, end market durability (and implicit stronger pricing rights, more countercyclical investment, lower leverage and lower cyclicality)
10. AI, capital spending can still be "over-anticipated and longer.": Five major hyperscaler contributed about 27% of S&P 500 capex and the market has consistently underestimated AI capex over the last two years; however, AI still has low visibility of investment returns and needs more fundamental research
11. "Mag 7" will rise and fall to divide.: The key to fragmentation is two things: (1) AI is expanding new markets or consolidating existing moats? (2) Is there a self-study/optimal AI technology, or does it have to rely on long-term partners?
12. The chance for small capitalization is "Ai's shovels and slings."(pecks and prices) + interest-rate sensitivity: The report suggests that interest-rate reduction and profit-improvement, M & A heating may drive small discs, but the acquisition of alpha must be proactive in selecting shares to avoid extreme fluctuations in meme equity
13. M&As/IPO recovery as a cross-market catalyst: They expect that the number of United States M & As transactions completed will increase, that the M & As will drive private equity activities and boost the financing needs of private loans (including the mesmerized layers)
14. When everything's expensive, don't just follow the benchmark.:: When equity debt valuation is high, it is more important to proactively manage equity allocation and bottom securities, to be international decentralized and alternative (private, hedge funds, physical assets) and to integrate exchange rate hedges into the portfolio framework
15. American consumption is a bipolar structure.20% richest households contribute about 40% of total consumption; if tariff transfer lags, 2026 may show more moderate consumption, but strong balance sheets/high savings/wealths and potential policy support can buffer down.
16. The "fiscal friction" of the national debt will change the alignment.: the short end is more driven by central bank policy and more countercyclical; the long end is more affected by fiscal and inflation expectations, easy to push up the rate of return and leads to steeper curves——Need to dynamically adjust the long and curved view
17. Europe's "new paradigm" is forming.• From external dependence to greater emphasis on defence, fiscal stimulus and infrastructure, protectionism and endogenous growth; the rate of implementation of the German financial package is 2026 key observation point
18. New theme: economic security + electricity demand: 2026 Economic security may drive large-scale capital spending on defence, energy and infrastructure; the increase in electricity demand brought about by AI/DC requires a whole-chain thinking from power generation, grid transmission to financing instruments
19. "Structural discounts plus structural opportunities" in emerging markets: The report highlights EM's relative US stock valuation discounts, and looks at the opportunities represented by China (on topics such as science and technology and advanced manufacturing), India (population and domestic demand), Gulf countries (reform and digitization/capitalization), but China places greater emphasis on "selection of shares and policy risk management".
20. Secure the main line: capture the "proceeds/carry" but put more emphasis on the active ticket.: Consider structured credit (e.g. AAA CLO wins carry with structure, BBB is attractive but has to choose; be more cautious about CMBS mezzanine); high-yielding credit fundamentals remain resilient, and bank segments in IG are profitable; EM debt still has revenue and alpha space

I. To remain proactive in the midst of a disorder:Which "catalysts" could be good for investment?

Maintaining an active and disciplined investment, a loose cycle, artificial intelligence (AI) and M&A/transaction activities are key "catalysts".Against the backdrop of a shift in central bank policy, changes in trade patterns and the frequency of individual events in credit markets, active and disciplined investment is crucial. We view loose cycles, artificial intelligence (AI) and M&As/trading activities as key "catalysts", and will continue to focus on the strategic configuration of the portfolio for returns.

Goldman Sachs thinks the Fed or twice in 2026.

The effect of tariffs on consumption can be "striped": the richest 20 per cent of households contribute about 40 per cent of their consumption, so a weak low income does not have to drag the total plate immediately. If tariff costs are delayed at 2025, 2026 consumption may shift to a more moderate and more price-for-money approach. In general, stronger household balance sheets, higher savings and accumulated wealth are combined with potential interest/fiscal support, making the "crawl-down" less likely; the real key is whether an enterprise can continue to transfer costs smoothly in the context of a weaker employment.

The market has been underestimating the size of the AI strike for two years, and the graph shows that the market's projections and actual growth in AI's capital expenditure are much higher than projected, i.e., the large plant has been smashing money, suggesting that the AI investment surge may still be early.

Goldman Sachs believes that the future of the Seven Bigs will begin to widen the gap, with two key points: first, who hit AI for a new growth curve, not just for the consolidation of old ground; and second, who can master more core AI technology/calculations/data (or can partner with top models) to form a moat. At the same time, the use of AI by the enterprise will become more and more common, as well as data governance, automation, passenger service and operational intelligence, which will benefit platform companies that help businesses use AI.

How will stocks and bonds evolve in 2026?

 

We believe that stock market segmentation is likely to increase further and are therefore more in favour of a proactive global distribution of stocks, combining fundamental and quantitative strategies. In terms of fixed returns, we focus on long-term multidimensional fragmentation, the strategic layout of the yield curve and active vouchers. At the same time, we see opportunities for interest earnings in securitized credit, high-yield credit and emerging market debt.

2.1 US Stock Market

The strong are strong or divided.In the US stock market, the size advantage is still growing: the top 10 equities (of which 8 are technology-related only) are close to a quarter of the global stock market, and the total market value is close to $25 trillion; within the 500 standard, the top 10 companies contribute about 40 per cent of the market value and about 30 per cent of the profits.

AI investment is an important driver of the "strength of the strong" round: five super-large and large-scale cloud manufacturers (Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft, Oracle) collectively covered about 500, 27 per cent of the standard capital expenditures, and the related AI infrastructure input and application commercialization is expected to continue until 2026.

At the same time, however, homogenization of performance among large companies is being broken and markets may become more fragmented or likely to increase.

In this context, the strategic focus should return to "quality" itself: priority configurationHigh Māori, robust balance sheets, longer end demandEnterprises also maintain discipline in valuations to capture excess gains in split-line situations.

2.3 The paradigm shift in Europe

The European stock market went through two distinct stages in 2025: the early part of the year, which benefited from expectations of economic recovery and concerns about policy uncertainty in the United States, and the relative weakness of the United States technology sector, which once won the United States. But... 2 AprilWith the introduction of a new tariff regime in the United States, the U.S. market has re-established itself as a leader in the AI-driven rise to SeptemberAt that time, the standard 500 had exceeded MSCI Europe at this price.

The main line of the European market isValue over value + valuation discount + opportunities for revaluation resulting from policy shifts：

• Europe 2025Finance, defence, utilitiesIn order to win on the board, European banks' valuations are still below the long-term average, adding capital strength improvements and higher dividends.There's still room for re-evaluation.I don't know. Overall, the European stock market is still relatively American.Significant discount。
• A group of European global champions (which benefit from long-term trends in energy transformation, sustainable consumption, etc.) have strong adaptive capacity;High-quality stock lags in stages, may provide a window of choice.
• In the future,More fiscal flexibility + re-industrialization/defence inputs(e.g., the easing of the debt brakes in Germany, the EU industrial and defence programmes) is expected to support growth and reduce the growth gap with the United States after 2026; while European market structures are more diversified and more conducive toQuantitative/active strategiesCatch fragmentation and ineffectiveness.

2.4 Value small and medium stock opportunities

In the field of small and medium capitalization, we see the opportunity offered by the "Enabled": AI in prosperity.The shovel and the shovel."(picks and images), including those companies that are at the forefront of AI ' s innovation. We also believe that there are attractive opportunities for small capitalization shares, whether in the United States or in other global markets: They are expected to benefit.Expected interest rate reductionwithIncreased profitabilityI don't know. At the same time, if M&As and trading activity warms up, it may also raise market sentiment and attract a broader focus on small capitalization. If you look at small capitalizations and avoid the risks of meme stock,

2.5 Emerging market directions

China

Recent stimulus policies are expected to boost consumption and STI and increase the attractiveness of the Chinese market; butSelection UnitThe key is to achieve real profit growth and avoid policy risks. The themes of our focus include:Advanced manufacturing、Science and technology innovation(AI, Robots, Electric Vehicles and Clean Energy)Biotechnologies and financial sciences、More resilient consumptionandA defense company with high dividends.。

India

Strong GDP growth is driving a steady improvement in corporate profitability. India since June 2021Digital PaymentsIncrease in size approximately 3 times, further enhance investment attractiveness. Population structure is favourable:65% of the population is under 35 years of age; median population 28 yearsAbout 10 years younger than the United States and China.

Middle East

We believe that economic reform, coupled with diversification efforts to "leave oil dependency", is creating new investment opportunities for GCC countries.DigitalwithCapital investmentsSuch topics may support business profitability. At the same time, while the Gaza conflict and the Red Sea tensions have raised the risk of trade and tourism,Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab EmiratesThe overall impact was relatively limited.

AI & Tech (AI and Technology)

Emerging markets are leading AI and chip innovation:China, India, Korea and TaiwanThere are representative companies that drive global growth in science and technology. Taiwan TSMC For example, in AI and 5GUp to 10 nanometersPredominant in advanced process chip manufacturing; company plans to invest in advanced semiconductor manufacturing operations in the United States $165.0 billion。

2.6 Day Unit

The core logic of the Japanese stock can be summarized as "Stable policies + reform deepening + financial entry + structural opportunities"

• Macrowinds.: Slow inflation and more stable monetary policy; wage growth drives consumption and corporate capital expenditure, supporting the recovery of profits in 2026.
• Exchange rate and demand structure: The Japanese yen is weaker than the export chain; the inward tourism is better than domestic demand/services.
• Corporate governance reform continues: Reforms promote increased returns to shareholders (red off, increased buy-back) to support valuations, even if they are above historical averages.
• Financial changes: NISA ' s expansion boosts tax-free investment, prompting Japanese residents to move from "cash preference" to more high-risk assets, creating medium-term incremental funding.
• The opportunity comes from "diverse + information asymmetries."Research coverage is relatively low, language and data access thresholds are high, creating excavable excess yield space for active/quantitative strategies.
• Potential Benefit Blocks: Defence, nuclear energy, science and technology (AI, semiconductor, etc.) received more attention in anticipation of more fiscal expansion/industrial investment.

2.7 Bonds

As economic and policy uncertainty increases, bonds remain important "balancers" in the portfolio, but can no longer be bought for a long period/market, but more proactively.Long-term dispersion, curve ( steep/ flat) positioningand combineCredit SelectionGet the money.

III.Explore alternative dimensions in the private market

We will focus on the valuation of private equity and the possible pressures on private equity; discuss whether real estate has rebounded; and explore more attractive opportunities in infrastructure beyond AI.

Private equity (PE)(c) High overall but not "manifest overestimation" of the valuation, with a greater fragmentation of returns; withdrawal from environmental improvements will expose differences in managerial competencies and new placements will be more dependent on finely selected/chosen GPs and operational capabilities.

Private Credit: Defaults are temporarily constrained by refinancing and PIK-like arrangements, but some of the borrowers' interest coverage is inadequate and the risk is at a "layer" level; even a reduction in interest rates can only be reduced to a limited degree and transactions undertaken ahead of interest rates are more likely to expose pressure in refinancing/price discovery.

Real Estate: Interest rates peak and supply contractions make it possible to restore commercial properties, but "centralize to high-quality assets" will be more evident; office remains the largest source of risk and refinancing peaks around 2026 may facilitate further price discovery.

Infrastructure: The power and grid gap created by AI is the main line, but the opportunities are more than data centres: the "essential services" such as grid resilience, energy efficiency enhancement, distributed supply, and logistics/supply chain restructuring are more beneficial; the market at the mid end of the valuation is relatively cheaper and more attractive.

IV.Group building paradigm shifts

The current investment climate requires a new perspective.Portfolio construction and managementI don't know. We have seen opportunities for re-calibration of the portfolio and, to some extent, improvement of its performance in open and private markets. Here we highlight four directions that are expected to be the focus in 2026:Active ETF、Enhanced Passive Configuration、End risk hedgeandExpanding accessibility to alternative assets。

The expansion of the private market and the decrease in the number of listed companies have encouraged investors to add alternatives, with a higher proportion of the millennium generation. The inclusion of private fundraising in the portfolio would add value over the long term, but attention would need to be paid to liquidity management and foreclosure restrictions.

V.The evolution of thematic maps and supertrends

The investment landscape is being reshaped by evolving "supertrends", which present both challenges and new opportunities for strategic capital allocation. We expect,Economic security"to remain a priority focus——This theme will be further amplified by the combined effects of volatile geopolitics, the new trade order, inflationary pressures and AI. At the same time, sustainable investment is maturing and will be more focusedActual performanceI don't know. In our opinion,Renewable energy, grid and storagePotential investment opportunities exist in these areas.

1. Power demand-driven energy transformation: A surge in power deployment in AI/data centres, where "power availability" becomes critical, and short-term and more profitable renewables are associated with power grids/storages, etc.
2. Climate physical risk rises: Disaster costs rise but prevention inputs fall, leading to business interruptions, insurance rates and so forth, and "adaptation and resilience building" will be the subject of investment.
3. circular economic opportunitiesResource constraints and the fragility of supply chains drive "recycling + waste + infrastructure", and widening infrastructure gaps make revolving innovation more urgent.
4. Water stress is underestimated.High water pressure areas are concentrated in a large number of power stations and new data centres, with high exposure in the food, semiconductor, mining, etc. sectors, and water risk gradually becoming an industry-wide pricing variable.