The forecast market can be considered one of the few model innovations in the current cycle.
When everyone can price their judgment about the future with real money and silver, and compete with each other in an open and transparent market, this is more trendy than you say, and makes it possible to predict that the market will always really reflect the future, and that the real probability will appear in the price. That's the charm of predicting the market.
God V. @VitalikButerin It was assessed that forecasting the market was a topic of interest to me for many years, and that it allowed anyone to place a bet on future events and to use the odds of those bets as a credible and neutral source of probabilities for such events, a fascinating application.
Myriad, by virtue of its origins in the media, was originally designed to create an information-driven market in which users can predict transactions based on news events.
As Myriad CEO Loxley Fernandes put it, predicting markets enables people to use their money to determine what is real and what is valuable, rather than being told the truth by traditional media.
Myriad's operator is a Dastan company, which also operates the Rug Radio and Decrypt media, and the system emphasizes media-oriented trust.
Compared toPolymarket @Polymarket This strong competitor, Myriad, combines forecasting markets with media content, using news sources such as Decrypt as a context to encourage users to participate in predictions based on hot spot information.
This can be seen from Myriad's UI design. In addition to the forecasting function, Myriad also has a news function on his official web site, providing fresh information for users as an important reference for participation in the forecast market.
Such a mechanism would be advanced by focusing user attention on Myriad through information polymers and the functionality of the forecast market, thus increasing the user viscosity and scalability of the entire platform.
And recently, Myriad announced that he would be with Walrus. @WalrusProtocol Collaborative, using the Walrus platform as its data layer to store the relevant images and content of the transaction.
Walrus, like the data vault on a block chain, can store large data (e.g. pictures, videos, news articles, etc.) on Sui by any accessor and ensure that they are permanently unmovable.
In the past, it had worked with the Decrypt media to document news articles, pictures and videos permanently and in a verifiable manner, creating an irreversible public information archive.
Myriad ' s initiative, on the other hand, aims to make it a full chain of forecast market agreements, replacing its earlier mixed model, which simultaneously relied on decentrized storage and cloud storage.
In fact, the Myriad platform had previously been directly integrated into the content of encrypted media Decrypt, providing the user with an opportunity to project the news of hot spots and, in conjunction with the text and video content of Decrypt, allowing the user to make the predictions on its own initiative through the latest news and credible data.
The accession of Walrus has enabled Myriad to extend this content base to real-time, data-driven markets, enhancing transparency and reliability in their operation.
Trust and transparency are central elements for predicting markets. Any user involved in the forecast market does not want the platform to be a hacker, while it is on the wrong side of the information.
Traditional predictive platforms often rely on centralized databases or third-party storage, and once altered or lost, transaction results and historical records are difficult to trace. Walrus permanently incorporates all Myriad transaction data and market content into the block chain.
This means that every market problem and transaction results on the Myriad platform are documented on the chain, and anyone can trace them; at the same time, the data on the chain can be used by other agreements to build a richer application scene.
Co-founder and Co-founder of Myriad COO Ilan Hazan @ilahnz 所言。Walrus 的加入切除了原先 Myriad 平台中的潜在单点故障或信任漏洞。例如,Walrus 取代了 Myriad 之前使用的 IPFS 存储机制,为 Myriad 的技术栈提供了防篡改且可公开审计的溯源机制。
这对建立用户信任极为关键。更重要的是,如果 Myriad 将来需要接受审计或在监管市场中运作,这些不可篡改的数据记录就能为其提供强有力的合规基础。
除了信任层面的提升,上链的数据也为预测市场开辟了更多应用可能性。Simmonds 进一步指出,Myriad 在链上呈现市场结果,为 DeFi 协议和 AI 模型提供了一手的数据来源。
Walrus 创始人兼执行总监 Rebecca Simmonds @RJ_Simmonds 指出,通过将可信信息与实时媒体内容结合,Myriad 将信息转化为资产,使每个市场的报道和结果都能上链、。这些上链的数据不仅具有透明、可验证的特性,还能被组合用于 AI 模型和 DeFi 协议等场景。
而预测市场与DeFi的深度结合,将会赋予预测市场未来现金折现的重要能力。
在这一点上,V神表示:预测市场如果开始提供利息,将彻底激活千亿级交易规模,并引爆大量对冲金融用例!
想象链上有个美联储会不会降息的预测盘,YES 的价格就代表市场认为降息的概率有多大。
DeFi 协议拿这个概率来设计一种存款产品:从你现在的高利率里拿出一小块去买对冲票,一旦真降息利率掉下去,这些票就赔钱给你,类似于BTC/USDT双币赢。
对你来说,结果就是不管美联储降不降息,你大概都能锁住一个比较稳定的利率,而多波动的那一部分,被预测市场里那些愿意赌方向的人帮你承担了。
Myriad 的这次技术升级意味着用户可以更加放心地参与预测,每次交易和预测结果都能被链上证明,平台的运行更接近可视化。
Walrus 所带来的透明可信特性为其增添了有力的技术壁垒,并为预测市场的进一步发展提供了新思路,但要真正撼动已有格局,还需要时间和更多创新的推动。

